Dolphins game-by-game predictions after 2024 NFL schedule release

This hasn’t been the best offseason for the Dolphins. They lost Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Jerome Baker, Robert Hunt, Andrew Van Ginkel, Brandon Jones, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Raekwon Davis in free agency. While Miami did sign a number of reinforcements, it is clear that the team lost enough talent that they will likely regress this year.

However, the Bills are one of the few teams whose offseason was just as devastating. Cap concerns forced them to move on from Stefon Diggs, Jordan Poyer, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Gabe Davis, Leonard Floyd, and Micah Hyde. That means that both teams will look very different when they play each other in 2024, making this Week 2  matchup hard to predict. The Dolphins have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, so we will give the victory to them.

Win

Week 3 @ Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are only a fringe playoff team, but they do have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. The 12th man affects opposing offenses in a big way, and as an offensive-oriented team, Miami might have a tough day in Seattle.

Loss

Week 4 vs. Tennessee Titans (Monday Night Football)

Even if the Titans improve and the Dolphins regress, Miami should have enough firepower to get by the AFC South team. Tennessee’s win total line is at 6.5, and they probably need another year of development from Will Levis before they can compete with a team as talented as the Dolphins.

Win

Week 5 @ New England Patriots

Six quarterbacks were drafted in the first round this year, which tied a record set in 1983. Some of those quarterbacks have a higher ceiling than others, while others are more ready to play now. Drake Maye fits more in the former category, meaning he can terrorize the Dolphins for years to come, but his lack of experience might lead to some rookie-season struggles. If Maye doesn’t play great against Miami, the Dolphins can capitalize with another win in Week 5.

Win

Week 6 BYE

Week 7 @ Indianapolis Colts

The Dolphins have a tough road schedule this year, and that starts with their first non-divisional road game of the year against the Seahawks. The Colts are a sneaky good team, and Anthony Richardson seems primed to take the league by storm. Miami’s front seven got a lot weaker this offseason, and a rushing attack led by Richardson and former rushing yards leader, Jonathan Taylor,  might be too much for Miami to handle.

Loss

Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals underwent a massive rebuild last season that saw them move on from many veteran players. It led to a second straight four-win season, but even after selecting an impressive draft class, Arizona is still expected to struggle this year. A full season from Kyler Murray will prevent them from being a non-threat, though, so the Dolphins can’t walk into this game thinking that they already won it. Murray and Marvin Harrison make for a potentially dangerous quarterback-receiver duo.

Win

Week 9 @ Buffalo Bills

The Bills have had the Dolphins number as of recently. Buffalo has won 13 of the last 15 matchups between the two. Whether it is the difference in climates or a discrepancy in talent, it has become clear that the Bills know how to beat the Dolphins. Both teams suffered several losses in free agency, so it is tough to know who will regress more in 2024, but you can expect the Bills to beat Miami when the two play each other in Buffalo.

Loss

Week 10 @ Los Angeles Rams (Monday Night Football)

The Rams aren’t far removed from a Super Bowl victory. They are clearly a very different team than the one that won it all in 2021-22, but Los Angeles looked more like themselves last year than they did the year prior, and Les Snead finally has a first-round pick that can come in and contribute right away (Jared Verse). Matthew Stafford is still very talented, and Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp form arguably the best-receiving duo in the league. Miami’s secondary lost some key pieces, including Xavien Howard and Brandon Jones.

Loss

Week 11 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders made some big acquisitions on the defensive end this offseason, but they will still struggle against last year’s top-ranked offense. Miami put up 401.3 total yards per game, they had 265.5 yards per game through the air, and they scored 27 rushing touchdowns last season. All of those marks ranked first in the NFL. Miami’s offense can be overwhelming, and they can display that against the Raiders.

Win

Week 12 vs. New England Patriots

Miami was the one team that seemed to give the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick-led Patriots a tough time. This is a new era of Patriots football, but beating New England should only be easier going forward. Perhaps Drake Maye is the next Brady, and maybe Jerod Mayo is the next Belichick, but for now, we have to assume there will be some growing pains for the new-look Patriots.

Win

Week 13 @ Green Bay Packers (Thursday Night Football)

The Packers flew a little bit under the radar last year, and they finished off the season on fire. The team earned a playoff spot after winning six of their final eight games, and quarterback Jordan Love proved to the world that Green Bay’s patient approach with him was going to pay off. If the Packers can start this season like they ended last season, they will be a hard team to beat, especially when teams travel to Lambeau Field to play them.

Loss

Week 14 vs. New York Jets

The Dolphins have owned the Jets recently. The return of Aaron Rodgers will make it tough for Miami to sweep the season series against the division rivals, but they should at least be able to capture one win against New York. The Dolphins have won 13 of the last 16 matchups against the Jets.

Win

Week 15 @ Houston Texans

The Dolphins had the best offense in terms of total yards per game last year. The Texans are an up-and-coming team, though, with a dangerous offense themselves. With the addition of Stefon Diggs to an offense that already thrived in C.J. Stroud’s rookie season, the Texans will be able to give Miami a run for their money when it comes to putting points on the board. One thing is for sure, though, and that is that this game will surely be a shootout.

Loss

Week 16 vs. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. Even at home, beating San Francisco will be a tall task. Even with a high-octane offense, the Dolphins have struggled to beat playoff-caliber teams in recent seasons, and there is a good chance that will continue into this upcoming season.

Loss

Week 17 @ Cleveland Browns (Sunday Night Football)

The saying goes that “defense wins championships,” but dominant offenses have certainly found success in recent years. The Dolphins vs. Browns game will answer the question of who wins between a dominant offense and a great defense. The Dolphins put up the most yards in the league last year, while Cleveland allowed the fewest yards overall. Something has to give in Week 17, and we think that Miami’s offense will be enough to overcome the Browns’ defense.

Win

Week 18 @ New York Jets

After a season in which he put up monster numbers, Tua Tagovailoa established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He is still relatively young, though, at least in comparison to Aaron Rodgers. If he can stay healthy, the future Hall of Famer has the potential to explode for a bounce-back season after missing nearly all of last year. As a veteran, Rodgers knows how to win close games, especially because of his rocket arm and experience mounting comebacks. This game will surely be close, but Rodgers’ and the Jets have a good chance of coming out on top.

Loss

Record: 9-8