Contract analysts nail why Tua Tagovailoa could have a problem getting the deal some have projected

The Miami Dolphins' offense had a great run in 2023, putting up video game numbers on the way to 11 wins and a second straight playoff berth.  However, the Week 18 loss to Buffalo cost the team the division and the number two seed in the AFC. 

Tua Tagovailoa had a lot to do with that success, as well as some to do with their early playoff exit.  He played in a full 17 games for the first time in his career, throwing for a league-high 4624 yards and 29 touchdowns to 14 interceptions while making his first career Pro Bowl.  Despite question about his durability and with quarterbacks around the league suffering injuries at alarming rates (as well as Miami Dolphins players across the roster), Tagovailoa stayed healthy and delivered a strong season, at least for the majority of it. 

The time has come to pay the pauper for the Dolphins, with Tagovailoa set to play on his fifth-year rookie contract option this fall.  Projections have come in from some pundits as high as $55 million per season for Tagovailoa, with Spotrac pegging a 4-year, $220 million figure back in February, although they've come down to a $49.6 million (per year average) market value now. 

However, has Tagovailoa done enough to warrant a number north of $50 million per season?  A to Z Sports' Josh Queipo and Kyle DeDiminicantanio point out why that might not be the case. 

Queipo and DeDimincantanio took a logical approach at whether Tagovailoa deserves a deal at the top of the quarterback market.  They established the players to be compared against, namely Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, and Matthew Stafford.  Burrow has the highest annual contract value right now at $55 million per year after signing a 5-year, $275 million contract right before the start of the 2023 season.  Herbert is next at $52.5 million (5 years, $262 million).  Kirk Cousins is further down the list at $45 million (4 years, $180 million with the Falcons in March), and Matthew Stafford checks in at $40 million (4 years, $160 million in 2022).  

So, there you have it.  That's a good cross section of quality quarterbacks throughout the range of the current quarterback salary scale.  So where does Tua fit in?  

Queipo and DeDimincantanio did a breakdown of the numbers of all of those quarterbacks including Tagovailoa for both the two full seasons preceding their new contracts as well as the final year.  For Tagovailoa, the story was the same for both. Falling behind in interceptions despite having plenty of success on a per down basis of moving the football with a high yards per attempt figure and a high completion percentage. 

Accordingly, the question remains: will the Dolphins pay Tagovailoa north of $50 million per season or more based on one healthy season, albeit a very productive one?  Or is a number closer to what Cousins got in Atlanta a more reasonable position for the Dolphins to take?  At the end of the day, Queipo and DeDimincantanio projected a $49 million average for Tagovailoa on a three-year deal. 

The Dolphins surely like how Tagovailoa has run Mike McDaniel's offense.  However, teams get in cap trouble when they pay players more than their market says they're worth, and that gets largely exacerbated when the contracts run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.  We'll find out later this offseason just where the Dolphins stand on one of their most important decisions in a long time.